Bulletin N°62 2026 The President of the United States of America used the so-called "International Emergency Economic Powers Act" (IEEPA) to decide to impose customs duties in order to combat the trafficking of narcotics (countries targeted: Canada, Mexico and China) and against countries registering a trade surplus with the country.
The Supreme Court ruled these decisions unconstitutional, meaning a return to the original tariffs. The steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors, governed by different procedures, are not affected by this ruling.
Thus, the fire ignited in the global capitalist economy (capitalist, to reiterate) by President Trump seems to be extinguishing, at least temporarily. However, it is important to look beyond the woes of French wine and spirits exporters or German car manufacturers to analyze the situation from a broader perspective.
First, some figures: in 2025, the United States recorded a trade deficit (goods and services) of $900 billion, while China amassed a surplus of some €700 billion and the European Union €300 billion, half of which was in services, while for this sector, China remains a net importer.
The balance of payments takes into account the trade balance and inflows/outflows of financial capital, ultimately determining a country's debtor/creditor position vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The United States is characterized by a large deficit (over $1 trillion), while China and the European Union maintain a creditor position ($400 billion and $500 billion, respectively). It is worth noting that the European Union also benefits from its investments (the difference between the trade balance and the balance of payments), while China repays the rest of the world (capital outflows).
The United States of America has been in this debtor situation for about forty years, certainly increasingly pronounced, however, given the place of the dollar in international trade, the attractiveness of the American market (particularly in terms of financial investments), the IMF experts are not about to urgently land in Washington to impose draconian measures to rectify the situation.
Ultimately, until now, insofar as the world's leading power (at least in terms of GDP, but see below) provided an outlet (as the world's largest importer), globalized international capitalism benefited. It is interesting to note that a former head of the WTO, Pascal Lamy, reacted to President Trump's initial announcements with complete incomprehension: why break a machine that was running smoothly, without major difficulties, precisely given the dollar's place in global trade?
This is precisely the intention of the Trump administration, and tariffs are part of this overall strategy: to prioritize the reindustrialization of the country, a guarantee of power, instead of continuing to rely on the dollar's place in the world, which is itself contested. This is undoubtedly the source of the Trump administration's conflict with the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed), which conducts monetary policy independently. President Trump wants to see the dollar's exchange rate weaken to make "Made in USA" products more competitive, and therefore favors lower interest rates. This, of course, frightens holders of dollar-denominated financial securities.
The manufacturing industry represents 10% of the United States' GDP in 2024, compared to 16% in 1997. While China generates nearly a third of global manufacturing GDP, the United States and the European Union account for only 17% and 16%, respectively. These figures put American concerns into perspective, unless, on the contrary, the members of the European Union are unaware of the looming danger. Given the latest warnings from European authorities, it would seem that the defense of European manufacturing is high on the agenda, even if the chosen strategy is far less clear than that of the Trump administration.
Thus, manipulating tariffs is not among the whims of the White House occupant. It would be a matter of (re)changing the dynamics of wealth accumulation, which cannot be indefinitely entrusted to the financial sector in a context of challenges to the dollar's place on the international stage (which also allows the United States to practice extraterritorial justice).
The Supreme Court overturned President Trump's decisions on procedural grounds, as he had granted himself powers reserved for the legislature. This domestic episode casts a harsh light on the historical "allies" of powerful America who acquiesced to American demands.
But after all, if it really has to, European capitalism will invest across the Atlantic given the weak political resolve of its proxies in Brussels, as in Paris or Berlin.
In any case, the major imperialist confrontation is clearly taking place in the Pacific region.