Gantry 5

 

India: A balancing act for what perspectives?

Bulletin No45 avril 2024 The legislative elections take place in India from April 19 to June 1 . These elections concern 970 million voters who must nominate 543 deputies. The previous elections took place in April-May 2019 [1] and allowed Narenda Modi [2] of the BJP [3] (Indian People's Party) party to consolidate his position as prime minister.  Indeed, during the 2019 elections [4] , the National Democratic Alliance (DNA) led by the BJP obtained 353 seats against 93 for the Inclusive National Alliance for Indian Development (India) around the Congress Party, making part of this alliance the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) won 3 seats and the Communist Party of India (CPI) 2.
If the media mainly focuses on highlighting the Islamophobic attacks of N. Modi and his supremacist vision of the Hindu religion, attacks which he has just renewed during a speech [5] in April in Rajasthan, where he assimilated the Muslims in a fifth column against the Hindu population, fifth column, which by its demographics, would threaten the Hindu character of the State, they neglect to highlight the profound social and economic transformations in favor of great Indian capitalism, with the the objective of placing it in a competitive situation in the global market.
Since N. Modi came to power in 2014, these transformations have mainly affected agrarian policy [6] , industrial and financial policy with notable attacks on workers' rights. A member of BRICS+ of which India constitutes an important pillar, foreign policy has been shaped to give India the means to influence its integration into the imperialist system, both in alliance and in competition with others. heavyweight of the BRICS+ that are China and Russia, while managing its relations with the dominant imperialist power that is the United States [7] . In the financial field, while the BRICS+ are trying to develop a monetary policy in competition with the IMF, it is difficult to imagine India entering into conflict with the United States by subscribing to a common BRICS+ currency. It is keen on the independence of its central bank to the extent that it intends to ensure its domination over its area of ​​influence in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. In addition, it assumes its rapprochement with Israel, the United States, Australia and Japan while helping Russia to export its oil, all while remaining in the BRICS+!
Like the United States, France considers India as a strategic partner to counterbalance Chinese influence, also a member of BRICS+. Thus, last summer, Narendra Modi was the guest of honor at July 14 in Paris. Macon's recent visit in January consolidated the India-France partnership. According to the newspaper Les Echos [8] , its backbone is based on “  dense defense cooperation  ”. France is in fact one of the major suppliers of arms to India. Between 2018 and 2022, India captured 30% of French arms exports according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). France also supplied six Scorpène submarines, produced as a technology transfer between Naval Group and the Bombay shipyard, Mazagon Dock.
It must be said that the dynamics of Indian growth are fueling desire. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Indian growth will be 6.7% for this fiscal year. The IMF also revised upwards its forecasts for 2024-2025 and 2025-2026, to 6.5% compared to 6.3% previously. This growth is accompanied by an explosion of inequalities. In 2022-23, the income and wealth shares of the top 1% concentrated 40% of the country's wealth reaching their highest historical levels and the income share of the top 1% in India is one of the highest in the world, higher than that of South Africa, Brazil and the United States.
If the record of the Modi governments is very unfavorable to the peasantry and the working class, it is on the contrary very favorable to the large and middle Indian bourgeoisie and is not to displease the imperialist powers in general. The question is how long India will be able to play the balancing act between the US-dominated Euro-Atlantic bloc and the emerging Eurasian bloc? The answer to this question is closely linked to the development of the class struggle in India.
 India issue